SPANISH SENSATION

Tour Blog Day 14 – Stage 12 Cugnaux to Luz-Arididen

Well I picked a Spaniard to win today – but didn’t think it would be Sammy Sanchez.  He had a perfect set up – after losing time in the stage 1 crash and because of a poor TTT by his Euskaltel-Euskadi – he started the stage 5’01” down so when he attacked there was no danger for the Europcar guys or for the GC since he was still over 2’30” down on Cadel.  Very courageous attack and a way for him to pull himself back into a potential podium place – he’s only 11” behind Contador and 1’50” out of third.

It seems like ground-hog day with the yellow jersey – the guy who is supposed to lose it – keeps it!!! A great, great, great ride from Thomas Voeckler keeps him in Yellow – and should give him a few more days at the front of the race.  What a tremendous ride by Pierre Rolland – if someone told you at the beginning of the Tour the only two teams with 2 guys in the top 15 on Luz-Ardiden would be Leopard-Trek and Europcar you would have said – NO WAY.  But with a huge engine and a consistent pace Pierre Rolland and Tommy V worked together to stay in contact after every acceleration.  Tremendous.

What a change from the last time the Tour arrived here Lance Armstrong destroyed his competition after crashing on a musette bag on the way up.  The two guys left from that battle are Ivan Basso (6^th in 2003 / 4^th today) and Haimar Zubledia (who finished 20^th today)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrFJPZkdVhY

Sorry about the Euro-Techno…

I’ll tell you what there were no attacks like Iban Mayo’s out there today.    Look at the top 10 from 2003 and tell me why you think the speed was slower today.

2003 Tour de France Stage 15

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor             4.29.26

2 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi                                  0.40

3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi                                  

4 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi                         

5 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole                       0.43

6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo                                           0.47

7 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Team CSC                                       1.10

8 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Team Telekom                2.07

9 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor             2.45

10 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Brioches La Boulange            2.47

Remember Chavanel was a survivor of a long early break.

Check out the attacks of Lance and Basso from the 2004 climb to La Mongie on this video:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx-wa4o7hhk&feature=related

Mongie attack at 2:20 – watch the speed of Lance and Basso at 3:30. 

Notes:

• Nice attempt by Johnny Hoogerland – didn’t work – but good to see him make an attempt to keep the polka dot jersey.
• In 2003 a young Sylvain Chavanel went on an early attack and finished the day in 10^th place.  This time he attacked again but didn’t get away far enough.
• Glad to see Chavanel back near the front.  He looked great in the tri-color jersey with his tri-color Merckx
• Saxo Drop List: Benjamin Noval was dropped VERY early – at the start of the Tourmalet;  Matteo Tosatto was also dropped about 5k into the Tourmalet – not unexpected;  Jesus Hernandez at the start of the Luz-Ardiden
• Bad luck for Peter Velits with a bike change and wheel change right at the start of the Tourmalet.  He got back on during the Tourmalet but was 31^st over 4 minutes down by the finish
• Robert Gessink is not riding well – at all – he’s going to have to re-think his Tour tonight.  The speed that Barredo took off was impressive when he left him.  Gessink ended up losing 17 mintues and is now 15minutes down in the white jersey.  Look for him to try and heal and get into a break in the Alps.  A strong showing on Alp d’Huez would redeem him for the Dutch.
• There really is no organization and team-mentality at Radio Shack.  Klodi crashed and did the whole chase back by himself – even when he re-connected with the back of the peloton no one came to try and help him at all.  I don’t understand why Johan leaves these guys out there solo.  So that he can solidify his hold on 15^th place?  Why wouldn’t he send Zubeldia back to help Klodi.
• 11k to go with no Leopards except Schleck – Saxo still had four guys – but they couldn’t really do anything.
• Saxo drop list:  Navaro out with 9k to go; Chris Anker Sorensen with 8k to go
• Very nice attempt by Philippe Gilbert – great attack and attempt to get away on Luz-Ardiden
• Frank might be giving away his chance to win the Tour today – he should have attacked the group much earlier… this double leader without attacking each other isn’t going to work.  The way he’s riding he could have won the stage and taken a full minute out of Cadel if he hadn’t spend so much time checking on Andy.

Things are starting to look at lot different in this year’s Tour de France – the top 8-10 guys actually all seem pretty closely matched and Alberto is definitely lost his attacking power. For Contador whether that is from Giro fatigue, from his knee or from difficult recovery versus other years or a combination of all three is unknown but there are definitely ways to attack him and take time.

For reference on the speed of these guys take a look at these three videos. 

Alp d’Huez 2006 – Frank Schleck attack on Alp d’Huez

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18EoHCt82Us

Verbier 2009 – Albrert Contador attack

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibVr481vCIk

Tomorrow: Pau to Lourdes

It’s only 152.5km tomorrow – but there is a pesky HC climb starting with 60km to go.  Unfortunately the peak is still 42km from the finish – it’s almost all down hill from the top of the Aubisque to Lourdes – but too far for a climbing attacker to go solo.

I expect a break to form early – possibly including Philippe Gilbert as he wants to get the sprint point before the big climb.  Last time the Tour crossed the Aubisque a big break stayed away including Lance Armstrong as he chased one final stage victory.  He was unsuccessful but the group of 9 stayed clear and finished 6’45” ahead of the peloton lead by a charging Thor Hushovd.

I don’t know if Thor can make it over with the main group this year, but I don’t think Contador, Basso, etc can attack the Schlecks with any hope for success.  Look for the win to come from the break – possibly Sylvain Chavanel on the attack again, or Johnny Hoogerland trying to get the polka dots back, or Sandy Casar from FDJ.  This might be the first time a Frenchman wins at this year’s TdF.

Winner: Sandy Casar

Yellow: Thomas Voeckler

Polka Dot: Sammy Sanchez

Green: Mark Cavendish

Thomas Voeckler looks exhausted after defending the Yellow over two HC climbs