ian dewar - circling the world on two wheels

Hello Yellow Jersey. Can I please keep you tomorrow night

Andy Schleck gets what he wanted. Now can he keep it?

Alp d'Huez 100m to go... Race arrival minus 5 hours

Today the Tour arrives at Alp d'Huez and there's a million people on the mountain. The overwhelming favorite up here is Schlette but there is some sentiment for Cadel to win today too. Overall everyone agrees it's been a great tour and are happy to see it still so competitive this late in the race!!!

TREMENDOUS TOUR-INATION

TdF update July 20 - Stage 17

What a fantastic finish to an extremely difficult day – racing in the rain is never fun, but racing over treacherous roads at high speeds with the stage win and then the Tour on the line makes for high drama.  Today’s finish into Pinerolo did not disappoint. 

What more can be said about Thor – it’s more like the Thor de France after another dominating day in the mountains for the big God of Thunder.  He rode today almost exactly like he rode on Friday into Gap and that’s a trick he might not be able to pull a third time on the peloton.  Talking transfer rumors he continues to increase his contract value for next year – all the talk of him going to a French team – he may have just priced himself off the French market with his performance in the Tour.  Hopefully the rift between the Garmin guys and the Cervelo guys can be mended and JV can come up with the money to keep him on the Slipstream program – he would be a huge loss.

Onto Contador – finally we had some great racing today among the favorites – and just as Schleckette has been predicting someone will crack – too back it was actually him.  Finally we saw some separation among the big favorites – and it was Cadel who comes out on top.  He is absolutely flying right now and today’s result has to give him a ton of confidence getting ready for three incredibly hard days.   Contador and Evans were clear winners today.  Andy Schleck was the biggest loser – but actually Frank might be considered a winner too – even though he lost time and dropped to third.  Now with over a minute up on his brother they can stop riding hand in hand and Andy can get on the front and take some pulls for him.

Andy's potential to win the Tour is over.  Unless there is a stratospheric collapse by Cadel Evans and by Contador he's lost too much time today - and ultimately he has no-one to blame but his own descending skills for this year's Tour loss.

Tomorrow will be very important for the riders behind Cadel & the Schlecks.  Contor and Sanchez both took time back on everyone but Cadel today and the other top GC guys will want to try the same thing.  Look for Basso and possibly Tommy D to try a little attack tomorrow.  I doubt it will lead to anything but it’s a shot.  Also look for Andy to put in a big attack on the final climb to Cote de Pramartino.  He and Frank haven’t given up the dream of a Schleck 1-2 in Paris no matter what they say to the press.  You can tell that from the way they ride. 

Stage 17:  Gap to Pinerolo

Rough. Rough. Rough. There’s no way about it – this will be a really hard stage.  Look for a big breakaway again with some good names in it – but overall the Schlecks need time – so expect them to explode the peloton on the climb to Sestrieres and then Andy to attack on Pramartino.  He’ll want to gap his brother and the rest to get himself back in place for his not-so-secret Alp d’Huez attack plan.  I don’t think it will work – Contador is getting stronger and rides well in the rain – a bad day tomorrow will work in his favor.  He won’t like the hard pace Leopard-Trek pushes early but he’ll hang on.  In fact I would guess even when Andy puts his 100% attack in that Contador is able to go across with time.

Tomorrow I think the winner will come from a break again – so it’s super hard to guess – I expect a few FdJ guys to be up there and maybe even David Moncoutie and Sylvain Chavanel – tomorrow is their last reach chance for a stage win.  Voeckler should keep the jersey.

Winner: Sylvain Chavanel

Yellow: Thomas Voeckler

Green: Mark Cavendish

Polka-Dot: Jelle Vandendert

VOECKLER MANIA – LE NOUVEAU POULIDOR...

 

TdF July 18 – Rest Day Wrap-up

Or the new Badger! Every newspaper in France today has a story about Thomas Voeckler.  He’s  either the next Bernard Hinault or he’s the new Romain Poulidor – a new great champion – or an eternal-almost-gonna-make it.  But either way Voeckler has energized a new passion for the Tour de France among the French commentators and journalists.  The fact that there are established cycling experts willing to say “yes, Voeckler can win the tour” is a key change in even the last three days.  That’s what a ride up the Plateau de Beille in the company of giants will do for you.

I showed this in yesterday’s blog but it’s so good it should be shown every day – this is a guy with a suitcase full of courage as Phil Liggett likes to say.  Look at his battle from 2004 and then look at the video below – his battle from Thursday.  He’s a dude who knows how to suffer – and even if (when) he gets dropped in the Alps there will no one doubting his legitimacy in at the front of the Tour de France.

 

VIDEO -  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-5bt7Yjn3Q

 

VIDEO - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE6uSDzGozw

Watch his jump when Andy attacks.  That’s confidence.

Voeckler Quotes

Here's what's being said today about Tommy V and his chances to take this jersey all the way to Paris.

Equipe - Front Page - "WE WANT TO BELIEVE IN HIM... the idea is starting to form that Thomas Voeckler is not done with impressing us"

Bernard Hinault - "Yes he impresses me.  At plateau de Beille he didn't win the final yellow jersey, but he fought. With the jersey on his back he does not neglect it, he respects it. It makes to happy to see him at the front. I'm staring to like him"

Bernard Thevenet - "For me it was Luz-Ardiden when he surprised me, at plateau de Beille it was a non-race.  He's progressed in the mountains and has much more experience - when he responds to attacks he does not panic"

Bjarne Riis - "We made a mistake letting him get away.  He is going to be a fighter and has a strong team with him"

But on the topic of can he win the Tour. Lance already said maybe but of the French Bernard Hinault is of course the most vocal.

Bernard - "When we see what's waiting in the Alps - I don't think so. The triple HC day is too hard. Even if it's impossible anything can happen.  That's why we race."

But if you leave the final word to the man himself - Thomas Voeckler says "I estimate I have zero chance to win the Tour."  That's ok - stranger things have happened on the Tour de France roads.

It's incredibly refreshing to watch the Tour this year with less of a cynical eye.  The media is only starting to ask the right questions about why the speeds are lower, why the attacks are shorter and why the mix at the front isn't always the same.  The riders are still exciting and the racing has been unpredictable day after day.  What's next for the final week?  

Tour de France in the Alps

Get ready for a big four days of suffering.  The final push to Paris will start with a long up-hill slog to Gap with only one categorized climb - expect there to be some attacking on that climb.  Probably Sammy Sanchez, maybe Vanendert again, it would be a good spot for a Schleck attack (probably Frank) and maybe David Moncoutie trying to salvage his Tour.

The main focus on the day will be for the boys to try and not get too tired for Wednesday and Thursday's super-stages. The big teams will try to offer as much rest as possible and will protect their guys.

Honestly a guy who should give a dig tomorrow would be Levi Leipheimer.  I can't even remember the last time I saw him on TV here at the Tour.  He lost a ton of time on Saturday and can't be considered a contender anymore.  His team doesn't have a GC rider and they all ride for each other anyway.  Come on Levi - save your tour and your reputation and give it a shot... Lance did last year over the Aubisque and you can too...

I'll pick a winner tomorrow morning - so for now - he's a video of Levi attacking - I had to look hard to find it.

   

Even this isn't exactly a dramatic attack... come on Levi. Do it. Attack.

MANX MISSILE XIX WINS!

TdF Blog Day 17 – Limoux to Montpelier

Today’s blog is a bit late – 18 hours of travel from San Francisco to France with a few minor interruptions (lost reservations; lost luggage) will put things a bit behind schedule. 

Cavendish and HTC totally destroyed the field again yesterday – that’ll show me for betting against a guy who’d already won 18 stages of the Tour… he’s killing it and his team is like a TGV getting him to the front.  I hope Sky can keep Renshaw from signing with Greenedge if they want to get the same results out of Cav that HTC does. 

What else is there to say about an HTC sprint win – they did a great job with Europcar to control the peloton and set up the win.  Look at the final km here and tell me this isn’t textbook peloton control.  Even though Farrar complained quite a bit after – his team did a great job to get him in position – he doesn’t have the speed to come over Cav. No one does. They only way to beat him now is to isolate him and force him to either start his sprint early because he has no lead-out men left, or get the jump on him when he has no support left.

Breaking sports news video. MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL highlights and more.

There is no stopping Cav when he's got the lead out dialed!

Voeckler Mania! 

Instead of a bunch of notes from today it’s all Voeckler today in France!

Today’s Equipe said on page 2 “Voeckler en jaune a Paris?”  - and followed with a sub-headline – Solid Leader at the exit of the Pyrenees – the Frenchman showed he has the strength to defend his jersey”

If you compare the look on his face to the face of Contador at the finish yesterday you can see who’s riding into the Alps with the most confidence.  Voeckler will be up against three VERY hard days with the hardest two back to back on Thursday and Friday.  But he’s got all of France and all of cycling talking about him.  Even Lance Armstrong got into the prediction game and said he thinks Voeckler could win the Tour if he kept up to the top of Plateau de Beille with the leaders. 

Tomorrow’s rest day blog will focus on the last week and the contenders – who’s ready for the Alps and who’s about get a Michelin-starred dinner of pain…

To get ready for the rest day – check out this video of Voeckler in 2004.  Lance Armstrong was right when he was quoted saying about why Voeckler could win, “Lastly, the dude knows how to suffer.”

Ya think he learned A LOT from that day?

 

 

 

UN PELETON A UNE VITESSE?

TdF Day 16 – Stage 13 to Plateau de Beille

Versus has been touting today’s climb to Plateau de Beille as the King Maker stage… The Tour has only finished here four times before, but in each case the winner on the Plateau ended up as the winner in Paris – an impressive history – especially when you consider the four winners; Marco Pantani, Lance Armstrong (x2) and Alberto Contador.   Each time the winner was either solo or in a 2-up sprint.  

Today was Jelle Vanendert ‘s first win as a professional – in his first Tour de France.   And now his first leaders jersey with the polka-dots.  After Thursday’s impressive climbing escape to Luz-Ardiden Vanenert confirmed his climbing pedigree today by taking off early and holding off and stop and go peloton and a hard charging Sammy Sanchez.

At this point Sanchez has to be the guy who’s most disappointed by the time lost on Stage 1.  His climbing has put himself back into podium potential… too bad he’s even worse at TTing then the Schleck bros.

Seems like the pecking order for the climbing stages has been established – the top guys look like Sanchez and A.Schleck.  Next up Basso, Cadel, F.Schleck , Vandendert, and a surprisingly resilient  Thomas Voeckler.  Contador was able to hang on today – but nothing he did today makes him look like a Tour winner right now.  He seemed to be relieved every time the pace dropped and didn’t ever go close to the front.

Eventually more people are going to start asking – Can Tommy V keep the jersey?   And if not – can he finish on the podium?  His climbing today showed he can not only dig-deep when he needs to, but actually keep up and help control the race.  His Europcar team is doing a great job of controlling the race when needed.  Six days in Yellow – and for sure tomorrow he’ll keep it.   The Europcar stuffed Lion collection is going to look just like Thor’s.

Watch the final km again of today’s stage.  When A. Schleck attacks it’s Voeckler who is the first to jump to try and catch him.  Those 3 to 5 seconds don’t make a difference in today’s Yellow Jersey fight – Tommy is starting to believe he can keep it – and he’s going to fight for every second now.   On Thursday he was defending to keep it for a few more days.  Now he’s thinking of keeping it. Period.  Watch for a shift in the way he talks to the press.  He’s going to talk about “defending his position” as opposed to “keeping the jersey as long as I can”.

Breaking sports news video. MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL highlights and more.

I heard Phil Liggett ask today if Voeckler can keep the jersey.  You know the “peloton a deux vitesse” as the French have been complaining about for years (peloton at two speeds) is over if Tommy V is touted as a Tour contender and his rhyming buddy Tommy D is in the top 10 at the Tour.   Comparing today’s results to the 2007 or 2004 ascent of Plateau de Bielle will be an interesting exercise.  Someone will no doubt calculate VAM and tell us all it’s 7 to 10% lower – now we’re asked to draw our own conclusions.  Was Basso 10% better 7 years ago then he is today?   The other dramatic change from years past is the lack on sustained attacks.  None of the big leaders could get more then a five second gap without getting pulled back and none of them could sustain an attacking effort for more then a minute or two max.   Basso and A.Schleck made the best attacks and I thought one of them would stick – but after about two minutes of sustained effort they got caught each time.  I’d love to see what those Watt / Kg numbers look like.

 

Andy's big final km attack only got him 2sec over Cadel, Contador, Basso & Voeckler

Notes 

• Jens Voigt is like a honey badger – he doesn’t care – he just keeps drilling it.  “Hey Tour I know I crashed, get away from me while I adjust my earpiece”
• What’s Johan thinking these days when Haimar Zubledia is his GC leader now.  Wow – that’s a deja-vu.  In 2004 when Lance won on Plateau de Beille Zubeldia dropped out with knee problems.  In 2007 he was 3'45" behind Alberto.  Today he was 3'01" down on the Andy.
• Lots of questioning of Leopard-Trek tactics of going to the front on the second to last climb – they burn their boys out early – but also put everyone else on the defensive.  Even when Contador had 2 or 3 teammates late in the race left they couldn’t do much for him.
• Surprised that Hummer was able to get Cadel on camera – he sounded dazed – but everyday he doesn’t get dropped by the Schleck^2 he’s got to get more confident.
• Glad to see Sylvain Chavanel on the attack today – his injuries may prevent him from winning a stage this year – but his energy is giving credit to his tri-color jersey.
• It was nice to see David Millar in the break – but why is it everytime he gets anywhere near the front of the race every Brit commenting on TV or Twitter acts like he’s going to win…
• FdJ has done a great job of getting into every break  this year even if they probably won’t come away with a stage win.  Compare them to AG2R or Saur-Sojasun – they don’t have a GC guy and they don’t have a sprinter. They better get a guy into a break or two.
• Andy Schleck is going to need more then 2 – 4 seconds per stage to beat Cadel Evans – if they keep riding like this in the Alps (where there are really only two stages to take time) Cadel will head into the final time trial in the driver’s seat.
• After half of the mountain stages are done the top XXX riders in the Best Young Rider competition are all French… again are we getting back to a peloton of “one speed” not two?

 

Tomorrow: 168km Limoux to Montpellier 

Tomorrow is the last sprint stage for a while, so expect to see the three-way competition to set up the lead-out in the final 10-15km between HTC, Garmin-Cervelo and Omega-Pharma-Lotto.  All three big sprinters Cavendish, Farrar & Greipel have won this Tour and all three think with the right lead-out they can win again.  It’s going to be up to Omega and Cervelo to take control late and try to burn out the HTC leadout.  If Cav hit’s 1k to go with two guys and 500m to get with Renshaw in front he’s almost unbeatable – if a combination of attacks and high speeds can eliminate the HTC train then it’s a fair fight.

Look for Omega to try a late attack to force HTC into chasing earlier and harder then they want to, and then Garmin to come to the front and try and control the last 3k.  It’ll be a drag race to the line and I think now that they know how to beat Cav Omega can take this one out.  Greipel would love to beat Cav again and tomorrow is his last chance.  Cav won’t lose on the Champs if his team is still all-together for him.

Winner: Andre Greipel

Yellow: Thomas Voeckler

Green: Mark Cavendish

Polka-Dot: Jelle Vanendert

He's the darling of France again - now how about the podium?

 

THOR SMASH!!! (AGAIN...)

TdF Day 15 – Stage 13 – Pau to Lourdes

Are you freaking kidding me?

What can you say about a ride like today’s? Not only did Thor SMASH his breakaway companions – he proved AGAIN he is THE rider of this Tour.  Whatever BMC was offering him – I’m sure it just went up another 20% after today. Nice to see Saxo-Bank finally mentioned with Thor in mind - I figured that's what Saxo Bank meant when they said to Bjarne Riss "extra money can be found for the right rider"...   It’s going to be a tough call if Garmin decides to let him go can't sign him – compare his presence in the past 13 to Tyler Farrar and it’s a tough decision that Jonathan Vaughters needs to make. This has been a tremendous Tour for Garmin-Cervelo and he’s going to have to make some hard off-season decisions.

It’ll be a shame if the rumors of all former Cervelo Test Team riders leaving the team at the end of this year are true.

Aside from the presence of Thor and Petacchi in the break today – the stage unfolded pretty much as expected.  A bunch of French opportunists got in the break – a “climber” like David Moncoutie tried to attack and in the end a 2 vs 1 French vs. someone else ended up with the French on the losing end.  Good luck for the French that Voeckler is in yellow because there are not very many stages left that have an opportunity for a French victory.  This was a stage tailor made for a French breakaway and still they couldn’t win it… Christian Prudhomme might as well have called David Moncoutie or Jeremey Roy in October and told them… this one’s for you boys.  Even Laurant Jalabert said about Moncoutie “David Moncoutié rode very badly. You don't do a turn on the front if you're with Hushovd. He seemed to ride for 2nd place".  It’s like a national pastime for the French former pros to bag on the French current pros.

MORE THOR!!! 

 

Notes: 

• Another terrible day for Team Radio Shack – Klodi had to abandon today early in the stage after losing 8’26” yesterday.  His crash on the top of the Hourquette d’Ancizan really put him into difficulty and was again terrible luck.
• Sad to see Lars Boom drop out as well.  Seems like Rabobank has a history of taking young riders and pushing them beyond their limits too early.  Hopefully Lars can figure out where he fits in the Rabobank structure.  Who says top classic riders need to ride the tour to be “complete riders”.  Lars would be better served tackling the races that suit him vs. big stage races at this point in his career.
• The first 60km were SO FAST today – every team wanted to get into a break and Europcar did a great job pulling big breaks back.  Finally Thor , Petacchi et.al. did a great job to get away.
• Tommy V looked good today – it is just me or does he seem to get more yellow stuff everyday.  Today he had yellow helmet, glasses, shorts, jersey, bike, socks and shoes.  The only thing that was missing was yellow gloves… COME ON EUROPCAR get with it.
• Nice attack by Philippe Gilbert to move up to 9^th place.   Drop Voeckler out of there and he’s only 1’13” out of 5^th place… not that he’s targeting top 10 – but he could clearly do it.  Watch this guy 2 years from now at the Tour.  Podium potential for sure.
• I think Gilbert thought the 1k to go banner was the PMU sprint line – he launched a HUGE attack 1500m to go – ooops. I think he thought he was 500m from the line.
• For the rest of the peloton it was a pretty easy day – as they expected.  Nice to get a bit of rest before tomorrows Pyraneeian traverse. 

Tomorrow – Saint-Gaudens to Plateau de Beille – 168.5km

Tomorrow stage looks like a saw blade heading through the Pyrenees.  It’s going to be a complete crusher and the peloton is going to be glad they got a rest today.  Every time the Tour has climbed Plateau de Beille the winner at the top has won the Tour.   Tomorrow might turn the tables on that – but for sure the eventual winner of the Tour will need to be in the front group.

Based on what we all saw yesterday after the Tourmalet – we have to expect a very small group to get to the base of the final ascent together.  Whether it’s from Leopard-Trek forcing the pace or from attrition – any team that has designs on winning the stage will want to push the pace over Col d’Agnes to clear off the lower teammate of their competitors.

Look at this final ascent - I wonder how much slower the ride tomorrow will be vs. the Armstrong v. Basso race of 2004.  To see some interesting numbers look at this analysis of Thursday.

http://cyclocosm.com/2011/07/a-tale-of-two-luz-ardidens-2003-and-2011/ 

I don’t think Saxo has the bodies to do that – but if Contador harbors any hope of winning the Tour tomorrow he HAS to take time back.  There are only really two opportunities for him in the Alps and Frank Schleck has made it clear that the double-Schleck is finally a real threat.  Alberto WILL attack – but will it stick?  He looked very tired on Thursday and did not have any of the acceleration he is famous for.  He’s a champion – 6 time Grand Tour Champion – but watch this stage finish from the last time on Plateau de Bielle and tell me if he looks ANYTHING like that this year.

  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOaekFxl4Z8&feature=related

He has to have to attack – and I’m not ready to totally write him off – he looked really relaxed today and he’s going to have to turn himself inside out to drop the Schlecks.  I think Andy was lucky on Thursday but Frank has the form to win the Tour.   If Frank can go with Contador when he attacks he can put time on everyone.  It’s a big risk tomorrow. I think Basso is holding back a bit - his smile on Thursday made it clear he had more to go... he looks good and he's been here before.  I think it'll be Basso then Contador with F.Schleck on his wheel.  Cadel within 20sec and licking his lips to win the Tour.  F.Schleck in yellow again… I wonder how Andy will feel when Frank tells him to take a pull.

Stage Winner: Ivan Basso

Yellow Jersey: Frank Schleck

Polka Dots: Sammy Sanchez

Green: Mark Cavendish

MORE THOR - here he says "this is the best moment of my career"

 

SPANISH SENSATION

Tour Blog Day 14 – Stage 12 Cugnaux to Luz-Arididen

Well I picked a Spaniard to win today – but didn’t think it would be Sammy Sanchez.  He had a perfect set up – after losing time in the stage 1 crash and because of a poor TTT by his Euskaltel-Euskadi – he started the stage 5’01” down so when he attacked there was no danger for the Europcar guys or for the GC since he was still over 2’30” down on Cadel.  Very courageous attack and a way for him to pull himself back into a potential podium place – he’s only 11” behind Contador and 1’50” out of third.

It seems like ground-hog day with the yellow jersey – the guy who is supposed to lose it – keeps it!!! A great, great, great ride from Thomas Voeckler keeps him in Yellow – and should give him a few more days at the front of the race.  What a tremendous ride by Pierre Rolland – if someone told you at the beginning of the Tour the only two teams with 2 guys in the top 15 on Luz-Ardiden would be Leopard-Trek and Europcar you would have said – NO WAY.  But with a huge engine and a consistent pace Pierre Rolland and Tommy V worked together to stay in contact after every acceleration.  Tremendous.

What a change from the last time the Tour arrived here Lance Armstrong destroyed his competition after crashing on a musette bag on the way up.  The two guys left from that battle are Ivan Basso (6^th in 2003 / 4^th today) and Haimar Zubledia (who finished 20^th today)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrFJPZkdVhY

Sorry about the Euro-Techno…

I’ll tell you what there were no attacks like Iban Mayo’s out there today.    Look at the top 10 from 2003 and tell me why you think the speed was slower today.

2003 Tour de France Stage 15

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor             4.29.26

2 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi                                  0.40

3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi                                  

4 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi                         

5 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole                       0.43

6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo                                           0.47

7 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Team CSC                                       1.10

8 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Team Telekom                2.07

9 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor             2.45

10 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Brioches La Boulange            2.47

Remember Chavanel was a survivor of a long early break.

Check out the attacks of Lance and Basso from the 2004 climb to La Mongie on this video:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx-wa4o7hhk&feature=related

Mongie attack at 2:20 – watch the speed of Lance and Basso at 3:30. 

Notes:

• Nice attempt by Johnny Hoogerland – didn’t work – but good to see him make an attempt to keep the polka dot jersey.
• In 2003 a young Sylvain Chavanel went on an early attack and finished the day in 10^th place.  This time he attacked again but didn’t get away far enough.
• Glad to see Chavanel back near the front.  He looked great in the tri-color jersey with his tri-color Merckx
• Saxo Drop List: Benjamin Noval was dropped VERY early – at the start of the Tourmalet;  Matteo Tosatto was also dropped about 5k into the Tourmalet – not unexpected;  Jesus Hernandez at the start of the Luz-Ardiden
• Bad luck for Peter Velits with a bike change and wheel change right at the start of the Tourmalet.  He got back on during the Tourmalet but was 31^st over 4 minutes down by the finish
• Robert Gessink is not riding well – at all – he’s going to have to re-think his Tour tonight.  The speed that Barredo took off was impressive when he left him.  Gessink ended up losing 17 mintues and is now 15minutes down in the white jersey.  Look for him to try and heal and get into a break in the Alps.  A strong showing on Alp d’Huez would redeem him for the Dutch.
• There really is no organization and team-mentality at Radio Shack.  Klodi crashed and did the whole chase back by himself – even when he re-connected with the back of the peloton no one came to try and help him at all.  I don’t understand why Johan leaves these guys out there solo.  So that he can solidify his hold on 15^th place?  Why wouldn’t he send Zubeldia back to help Klodi.
• 11k to go with no Leopards except Schleck – Saxo still had four guys – but they couldn’t really do anything.
• Saxo drop list:  Navaro out with 9k to go; Chris Anker Sorensen with 8k to go
• Very nice attempt by Philippe Gilbert – great attack and attempt to get away on Luz-Ardiden
• Frank might be giving away his chance to win the Tour today – he should have attacked the group much earlier… this double leader without attacking each other isn’t going to work.  The way he’s riding he could have won the stage and taken a full minute out of Cadel if he hadn’t spend so much time checking on Andy.

Things are starting to look at lot different in this year’s Tour de France – the top 8-10 guys actually all seem pretty closely matched and Alberto is definitely lost his attacking power. For Contador whether that is from Giro fatigue, from his knee or from difficult recovery versus other years or a combination of all three is unknown but there are definitely ways to attack him and take time.

For reference on the speed of these guys take a look at these three videos. 

Alp d’Huez 2006 – Frank Schleck attack on Alp d’Huez

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18EoHCt82Us

Verbier 2009 – Albrert Contador attack

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibVr481vCIk

Tomorrow: Pau to Lourdes

It’s only 152.5km tomorrow – but there is a pesky HC climb starting with 60km to go.  Unfortunately the peak is still 42km from the finish – it’s almost all down hill from the top of the Aubisque to Lourdes – but too far for a climbing attacker to go solo.

I expect a break to form early – possibly including Philippe Gilbert as he wants to get the sprint point before the big climb.  Last time the Tour crossed the Aubisque a big break stayed away including Lance Armstrong as he chased one final stage victory.  He was unsuccessful but the group of 9 stayed clear and finished 6’45” ahead of the peloton lead by a charging Thor Hushovd.

I don’t know if Thor can make it over with the main group this year, but I don’t think Contador, Basso, etc can attack the Schlecks with any hope for success.  Look for the win to come from the break – possibly Sylvain Chavanel on the attack again, or Johnny Hoogerland trying to get the polka dots back, or Sandy Casar from FDJ.  This might be the first time a Frenchman wins at this year’s TdF.

Winner: Sandy Casar

Yellow: Thomas Voeckler

Polka Dot: Sammy Sanchez

Green: Mark Cavendish

Thomas Voeckler looks exhausted after defending the Yellow over two HC climbs

TEXTBOOK

TdF Day 13 – Stage 11 

Mark Cavendish and his HTC team could not have had a better set up then they did today.  HTC delivered Cav through 1k to go with Renshaw sitting on the Sky train.   At 500m Renshaw went to the front and the Manx Missile came off his wheel perfect and delivered his third win of the Tour.  Yesterday showed that Cavendish can be beat but it takes a perfect race to do it.   Check out the final KM here:

Breaking sports news video. MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL highlights and more.

 

Today was the last sprinters stage for a while and the boys made sure the finish delivered – the 167.5km were covered at an average of 44.5 kph (27.8 mph).  Great work today by the sprinters teams and by Europcar to keep the break in check.  Thomas Voeckler has a great advantage that none of the breakaway riders were even close on GC so they didn’t have to work that hard – more of the pressure was on HTC, Lotto and Garmin to keep the break in check. 

Notes:

• Finally an uneventful day for Contador – all the media could say about him was “Contador says his knee is getting better”.
• Lots more press about transfers – Thor and Gilbert to BMC was reported again today in a few places.   That pretty much dooms any chance George Hincapie would have of one final attempt at Paris Roubax and says they are giving up on Ballan as well.
• BMC will have a lot of PR to clean up on after this year if Ballan is charged for doping by the Italians. Too many close calls this year.
• If Bob Stapleton is still talking about needing a sponsor this deep into the Tour it looks like he doesn’t have the offer he wants from HTC.  This video on Cyclingnews looks like a advertisement for “Sponsor High Road”.  http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/video-stapleton-busy-seeking-sponsors
• Lots of chatter about what Michael Smith from ESPN said yesterday on his twitter… if you missed it here was his first tweet “For real, am I wrong for laughing at that Tour de France crash? Can't get over the driver speeding off as if he didn't know he hit someone!”
• If you want to comment to ESPN on his behavior here is the link: http://espn.go.com/espn/contact?lang=EN&country=united%20states
• Check out this sweet shirt that Stomach of Anger is selling – check here to get one: http://www.stomachofanger.com/ 

Tomorrow – Pyrenees start with a bang - 211km from Cugnaux to Luz-Ardiden

The first big mountain stage of 2011 has two of the biggest and most respected climbs – Col du Tourmalet and Luz-Ardiden.  This combo climb is most famous for Lance Armstrong’s crash on the final climb in 2003 as he was winning his 5^th Tour and being chased all the way by Jan Ullrich. 

But it’s this stage from 1990 that offers one of the best mountain stages – how often does the yellow jersey attack from 80k out?  Check out who wins this stage!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAjj5137yKM&playnext=1&list=PL9477779599014775

Tomorrow will it be a repeat?  With the current champion and a future champion taking the top 2 at the finish. 

The stage should unfold predictably – with Johnny Hoogerland joining a break for the mountain points over the Cat 1 La Hourquette d’Ancizan – and then a number of attacks on the Tourmalet from guys 5 to 10 minutes down.  The biggest question will be how the GC contenders react?  Seems like the only way to beat Alberto Contador is to make him do ALL the chasing.  He doesn’t have the team to shut down every attack – so he’ll have to be careful.  But if a guy like Levi or Tom Danielson gets away on the Tourmalet will Leopard or BMC take any responsibility to chase him down?  They shouldn’t.  If they want to win the tour – they have to risk loosing it first.  It’ll be a great game of poker tomorrow on the climb to Tourmalet and it’s going to be interesting to see who responds.  Any team who pulls except Saxo between La Hourquette and the base of Luz-Ardiden is only helping Alberto.

Who’s going to win?  The guy with the most to lose – I predict Alberto Contador will finally launch an un-followable attack – but only very very close to the top.  Andy, Frank, Cadel, Klodi, etc… shouldn’t be that far behind him.  He’s a smart rider with a  smart DS – tomorrow isn’t the day to take big time – just the day to make a statement on his form.

It’s a tough consistent final 5k on the climb – a steep ramp at 9% at 4km to go should be the launch pad for Contador and that will cause Cadel a tiny bit of trouble.  I think he’ll get gapped slightly on the run in to the finish – leaving the top Leopard Trek rider in yellow.  Unfortunately for Andy that’s FRANK!!! 

Winner: Alberto Contador

Yellow: Frank Schleck

Green: Mark Cavendish

Points: Alberto Contador

 

Will we get this on Friday??

GUERILLA REDEMPTION & SURVIVAL

Tour Update Stage 10 – July 12

Awesome to see Vacansoleil work together today – they sent Marco Marcato up the road to collect as many mountain points as possible and then had two to three guys around Johnny Hoogerland all day long.  They should have given him the “Combative” prize again today instead of his teammate Marcato. Hopefully he can heal up enough to go out on a flyer on Thursday chasing some big mountain points on the Tourmalet.

What a great finish to the stage.  Seeing the yellow jersey and green jersey on attack with 10k to go makes for great racing.  It’s encouraging to see the riders willing to take an attack risk rather then wait for the inevitable sprint when a big team like HTC takes the front.  Perfect tactics by Omega-Parma, even with only 6 riders they were able to go to the front and split the field on a category 4 climb to launch Gilbert’s attack – and then at the finish they still had one guy to lead out Andre Greipel – the man the call The Guerilla.

Crazy last 20k today - HTC blew all their guys just getting back over the last Cat 4 hill and controlling the too race early – Cav was solo with 1km to go – he did the only thing he could which was open the sprint first – but Greipel came past him with a HUGE burst of speed.  To be honest I didn’t think Greipel could make it over all the hills today but what an impressive win and what a great set up by Omega-Pharma.  Even though they lost their GC guy they are having a GREAT tour.  This may cause the Omega company to consider staying with Marc Sergeant’s team next year after all.

Notes:

• Not be out-Euroed of course Colnago had an even more yellow bike made for Tommy V for today’s stage.  The yellow tinted bike was only a training bike for yesterday.
• I wonder how sick Goss is – he dropped off with about 60k to go today .
• Cav couldn’t help rip on Greipel immediately after getting beat by him. I’m not sure if his arrogance is refreshing in the sport or a sign of his immaturity. I think he’s so emotional he just says what come to mind without thinking first… why not!
• http://twitter.com/#!/MarkCavendish/status/82110755171860481
• Great finish again by Gilbert and Thor – everyday they keep increasing their value on the transfer market.

 
Transfer Rumors

I was a bit surprised that there weren’t more announcements about sponsorship and rider signings yesterday during the rest day.  I know the UCI rules say teams and athletes cannot talk about next year’s signings until August 1^st – unless they are re-signing to their current team.  There is also a new regulation this year which allows athletes to actually switch teams mid-season from August 1^st to August 15^th.  That’s an interesting option for riders a team doesn’t want anymore and who already have a deal in place for next year.  A guy like Pieter Weening – he’s fallen out of favor at Rabobank and has already announced he’s leaving at the end of the year.  If another team can take over his salary from August to December they might go for it.

Big announcements that will take place soon include the biggest sprint names on the transfer market: Philippe Gilbert, Thor Hushovd, Mark Cavendish & Matt Goss.  Goss is already linked to the new Australian team Greenedge, and BMC has been reported to have offer Gilbert “whatever it takes”.  After this Tour Thor probably has offers from every French team and most other teams in the peloton as well.  He’s in the drivers seat for sure now.  Reports yesterday have an offer from BMC for he and Gilbert to be a one-two spring classic punch.  Cav has been linked to Sky for the past three years – so it would take a colossal misstep by David Brailsford to lose him this time around.  Part of it will certainly depend on the commitment Sky can make to build a lead out train around him – but also it depends on HTC finalizing a new sponsor by next Monday. Rumors say it's looking good.

If HTC in fact doesn’t have new sponsor lined up expect BMC to make a huge play for Tejay van Garderen – he’s a young American with an already building fan base, he has great stage race indications and he’s young enough that they don’t need results right away from him.  With Andrew Talansky on Garmin getting better too there will be a great rivalry between them for years to come.

Tomorrow – Blaye-les-Mines to Lavaur – 167.5km

Another short, but not flat stage that will test the sprinter near the end to see if they can keep up.  Some good climbing near the beginning and then a Cat 4 climb 32km from the end.  Shouldn’t be enough to drop off the real sprinters – so expect to see the dueling lead out trains of HTC vs. Garmin again tomorrow.  HTC wore themselves out today again (like stage 3) and so expect them to look for help tomorrow from Europcar, Omega Pharma and Garmin over the last 80km.  Should be another medium sized break to start and Europcar will again keep the gap to less then 5 minutes for most of the day.

Look for Vacansoleil to put someone into the early break to get the Cat 3 points and then a bunch of French guys to rotate through until about 20k to go.

Cavendish will want to win BAD tomorrow – after getting beat by his biggest rival today he’s going to have his team all fired up.  With a slight downhill to flat finish there should be no way he won’t have the leadout he needs. Expect him to come off Renshaw’s wheel at 70kph and just beat Farrar to the line.

Winner: Mark Cavendish

Yellow: Thomas Voeckler

Green: Phillipe Gilbert

Polka dot: Johnny Hoogerland