ian dewar - circling the world on two wheels: July 2009

Lance goes over the Col de Colombiere in 4th place.

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Third time’s a charm

Traditional Savoyard Dinner of Tartiflette and Apremont

They say bad luck comes in threes – so yesterday when I arrived in Lyon for the start of my Riders Club adventure to the Tour de France I was waiting for the third step. Already I had to change flights in San Francisco because my original connection was delayed – ok no problem – I just had to take a shuttle to SFO and get on a direct. Then second piece of bad luck I had to sit in a middle seat for 10 hours – again not a huge problem since they serve Champagne on Air France. Now third in Lyon one of my bags didn’t arrive – apparently it was still in Paris (and why wouldn’t it be). No problem – I got my rental car, drove around for a while, found a bar in a hotel and watched the last hour of the Tour de France. All’s well that ends well.

I’m here in France for 9 days for the Specialized Riders Club Dream trip to the Tour de France. We partnered with Bicycling Magazine and Backroads to create a VIP trip to the Tour including some team access and some special guests. The trip is shaping up to be a lot of fun and we’ll hopefully be interacting a bit with some of the other Backroads guests too. There are two different trips taking place at the same time and I’ve brought over some Specialized stuff for all the leaders and will try to make both trips feel like they are getting a bit of an extra TdF experience whenever possible!

So… back to the race. It finally happened yesterday. If they say three times a charm then for Alberto Contador his third time beating Lance Armstrong in a key stage has finally cemented his position as team leader and as the best cyclist in the world. The ASO must be overjoyed that it took two weeks of intrigue, drama and a bit of infighting in the world’s strongest team to finally establish a team leader – but with Alberto’s clear superiority over LA in yesterday’s final assent to Verbier the team must be a bit relived that the drama is over. Instead of a blow by blow breakdown of how Albert took it to the race let’s look a bit closer at the pre-race favorites and who’s established themselves as the flavor de jour as darling of the press.

I looked back at the pre-race favorites and here’s how they look:

1) Lance Armstrong – you know I think I’m becoming a Lance fan again… Notwithstanding his little tantrum when Alberto took 21 seconds from him the first week in Arcalis, Lance is riding just one step below where he was when he last raced the tour. If he is here to prove a point – that last year’s race was shit and that he could have easily won – he is actually doing a pretty good job. Take a look at the top 5 from last year – Sastre, Evans, Menchov, Vandevelde and Frank Schleck. Lance is looking pretty good vs. all of them right now. And let’s not forget while he finished 9^th yesterday he is still in a solid second place. Tomorrow’s stage is a bit of a wild card and Wednesday’s stage actually suits his climbing style. For a 37 year old with three years away from the sport LA is swinging a pretty big stick.

2) Alberto Contador – damn. What can you say? He’s right back a the level he was the last time we saw him at the Tour de France… well actually his time trailing is at another level all together. Where that was his only “weakness” two years ago, now it’s his strength. He may not finish quite as high on the standings on Thursday due to the flat nature of the Annecy TT, but he certainly isn’t in danger of losing minutes like he was a few years ago. Contador’s turn around in TT-ing has been remarkable and if it continues to improve he really will establish himself as unbeatable for a generation.

3) Carlos Sastre – everyone says he’s a nice guy and a hard worker, and goody-gum-drops for him he managed to win the Tour last year… but let’s be honest – did anyone really expect him to win the Tour again this year? He’s a great climber who is prone to on-off-on days. Last year he only had to be on one day and managed to sneak out a win though Cadel’s complete collapse of confidence in the TT and some very crafty riding by the Schleck bros. Don’t take away from his win, but he’s probably going to climb himself back where he belongs in a grand tour – somewhere between 3^rd and 5^th.

4) Cadel Evans – He said in the press today that yesterday was his worst day ever on a bike and that he had his only “jour sans” in the Tour. Uh Cadel – did you forget last year’s TT at Saint Amand so quickly? All you had to do was beat Carlos by the same margin you’ve ALWAYS beaten him by and you would have won the Tour. That was a pretty major “jour sans” if you ask me. Cadel has been stable this year and honestly looks about as good as you would expect him to. With the inclusion of the TTT again this year I don’t think anyone really expected Cadel to challenge for the overall. It was a foregone conclusion that he would lose ~2 min in the TTT and in the end he actually lost more. He’s trying to put on a brave face, but let’s face it. He’s not as good a climber as the top 5 guys here and his only saving grace was picking up time in the long TTs and there is only one this year. Cadel might climb his way back into 5^th or 6^th place, but to get any higher than that is going to be a gift from the other teams.

5) Denis Menchov – crushed. Apparently winning the Giro was harder then he thought it would be. He’s got nothing in this tour. Can’t climb, can’t TT, lost a ton of time on the TTT and can’t even keep his head in the game to stop getting gapped on the run in on rolling stages. He is so out of the game I hope France Television doesn’t waste any more moto-camera time on him and puts that cam on a real contender.

6) Christian Vandevelde – I think his 5^th place last year (actually 4^th) was well justified and Lance’s comments don’t do him justice. But for him to repeat that all the stars need to be aligned and he would have needed to ride his best race again – every day. Throw in a broken back at the Giro and months away from racing and it’s clear why he is a notch below the best here. With a good final few climbing stages he can pull himself into the top 10 again – but his chance at the podium is lost. Good effort from a real team player, but he never really had a chance this year.

7) Andy and Frank Schleck – let’s put them together and call a spade a spade – Andy is the man. Frank has said in many interviews – “we’ll work together”, “let the road decide”, “we work for each other”… but the truth is – he had his one shot at the yellow jersey and I hope he kept some framed ones at home because his baby bro is the one who’s going to be chasing it from now on.

The Tour is by no means over… that’s a greatest part about the greatest cycling race – it’s never over until the day before Paris, and there are still four very hard days ahead. Follow me for the next 7 days as we count down the final week of the Tour de France. I’m here on the Bicycling Dream Ride and we’ll have a lot of updates from Tour insiders, top of the col viewings, good side of the fence access and rolling on the bike shots.

A few things to look for in the final week:

· Watch for a breakout attack from Wiggo on Tuesday or Wednesday. That guy has nothing to lose.

· Don’t count out Saxo Bank – they decimated the peloton yesterday with the combined Voigt-Cancellara locomotive and will do it again. They have put all their eggs in one basket before and come out winners.

· Klodi is WAY underrated. Once he gets the OK from Lance to ride off the front – you may see another Astana rider in second place. He looked effortless yesterday pacing LA up the final 5km.

· The Shiv should make it’s re-appearance on Thursday and watch for Sparticus to put the blog-o-phere back on notice that aero development is king (again).

· Will Ventoux be the greatest day in the Tour in the past 10 years? We will have to wait to find out, but what a great way to finish the race – win the last climb, go straight to the podium in Paris.

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