ian dewar - circling the world on two wheels

Watch some sweet videos!

I saw this and thought it was pretty damn cool.

Hurt more... hurt less?

i like this.

take back the tour???

i saw this on Pro Cycling Weekly's website - a Where R They Now about last years top 10 at the Tour de France - it was pretty funny.

and now Vs. has this Take Back the Tour commercial running - like finally they realized there is doping in cycling?

what i really want to see is a tour preview that breaks the athletes down by their former trainers and lists their odds on victory vs. getting busted... somthing that looks a bit like this:

Michelle Ferrari:
past clients include Lance, Levi, Floyd, George Hincapie, Bjarne Riis, Vino and other top tour riders...
not much word on who he's working with now since his last young gun Patrik Sinkewitz got busted and I think he was working with the Chicken for a while...

Cecchini:
past clients include Tyler Hamilton, David Miller and linked to young guns:
Fabian Cancellara, Thomas Dekker, Damiano Cunego

Then there is Fuentes - the gift that keeps giving:
Let's see he's taken down Basso, Ullrich, Mancebo, Beloki, Botero, Scarponi etc...
and still linked to Valv-Piti and Urko... but they are of course totally clean.

So if you go down their list of top 10s from last year favorites it looks a bit like this:

Contador - maybe he's AC and maybe he's not... i mean of course he wouldn't use drugs when his mentor Manolo Saiz is helping him be the best cyclist he can be and goes from Manolo's team to Manolo's most prolithic students team... whatever.

Evans - seriously i can't even watch him race, he whines like Verenque in '97 and '98 but looks like Verenque with the bad hair cut in '99 and '00.

Levi-I-can't-believe-i'm-vacationing-on-the-same-island-as-Ferrari-Leipheimer - the tour is better off without the hours of daily gnashing from Phil and Paul about how he's coming on form and his bullshit interviews about how he's just doing his best for the team... apparently his best isn't even top 10 in a TT at the fucking Giro... seriously no one who's a good TT-er goes to the Giro.

Valv-Piti - should be good because he's apparently learned to start racing without Fuentes' help... or has he?

Sastre - who knows? I would put him in the Cecchini camp since Cecchi was the team consultant for CSC until 2004

Zubeldia - seriously does anyone know who this guy is? he finishes in the top 10 every year at the tour and doesn't race any other races it looks like... he can climb ok and tt ok and probably could podium in a mid-sized stage race but doesn't seem to race them... actually he'll probably have to work for Sammy Sanchez the first two weeks so won't have a shot at top 3 by then anyway. who knows who the Euskatel's work with now, but it was David Millar who said he got his EPO from their team Dr (WTF???) so maybe they don't even need an outside consultant.

Kim Kirchen - ex-client of Cecchini... really riding well this year

Popovich - whatever drugs he was on when he got 3rd at the Giro sure ain't working now... he better get his ass to a mexican pharmacy quick or basically plan to get Evans half way up the final hills and bail out... should have learned a lot about blood-doping while on Disco

Mikel Astarloza -
another Euskatel guy in the top 10 no one has heard of... shocker. did he win any other races? Ever? i'll bet there is a hell of a big blood fridge somewhere in a mountain in the Basque Pyrenees that no one WILL EVER FIND... the password is probably XZYYOLLZX and the only way in is through a sheep cave with a 400 year old shepherd guarding it.

Oscar Periero - oh yea - he was 10th again last year. maybe he shouldn't have named his dog Urko - it's too suspicious. well at least he's willing to take a DNA test to clear his name... oh wait... nevermind.

how many grand tours does it take to make one...

well the Giro is starting tomorrow - and for the first time in a long time the Giro has the Tour winner, the Vuelta winner and the defending champion all on the start line and all with a shot to win!  this ain't no greg lemond training day... but the kick-side of the whole mess is that all three have been accused of being dirty in the past year - in fact there are rumous about almost the whole start list - oh yea and pretty much every past winner of either of the three races.

So with DeLuca barely making the start with his CAS hearing just ending and Astana getting an invitation at the very last minute and Rabbobank sliding under everyone's radar even with the Tour fiasco last year - the Giro director Angelo Zomegnan  said, "Nobody knows if there will be any doping scandals at this year's         Giro d'Italia but I'm hopeful and I think it'll be a great race. There will always be someone who tries         to cheat in sport, just like in life but all the riders have accepted         the biological passport system and have been tested several times."

Beauty there Zomi!  Because you were right - Max Richeze of the CSF Group Navigare team's A sample just tested positive for steroids.  oops - and he was about to get awarded two stage wins from 2007 because another long time Giro star Alassandro Pettachi got banned for a year for using his inhaler a bit too much a year ago.

So now Alessandro sits at home until August 31st. Oops now he'll miss the Tour and the Vuelta.  He'll miss the world championships.  He'll lose a bunch of old victories and who knows if he'll even have the incentive to race again.

Let's look at who Unibet is giving the best odds on this year:

1.Klöden, A  3.50 - hmmm. might be clean, but is the only guy from the T-Mobile '06 Tour team that got busted for a late-night dope trip to Freiburg that hasn't been officially named. but doped up or not he is the most underrated Grand Tour rider of the past 10 years.

2. Contador Velasco, A  5.00 - Tour de France winner, every other small stage race in Spain winner,  should have been the next Lance Armstrong at Discovery.  oh yea and admitted doper Jorg Jaksche says he is AC in the Puerto files. oh but Fuentes says he's not. oh and Contador says he'll take a DNA test and the Spanish say he doesn't have to. But Pat McQuaid thinks he's clear so supports him 100%

3. Di Luca, D  7.50 - Busted in Oct for a 3 year old case (oil for drugs). almost busted again for having the hormone levels of a 13 year old girl.  barely escaped being banned a few weeks ago by CAS for oil for drugs. so while his old pal Mazzoleni gets 2 years - he only got 3 months - but both were caught on tape talking about EPO with Dr. Santuccione. hmm.

4. Menchov, D  11.00 - Menchov is like teflon when it comes to doping rumours.  When Puerto first came out his name was on the list, but immediately removed. then German TV said in January that he was involved in a blood doping program at an Austrian lab.  of course no one has published any proof, but it keeps going... oh yea when he won the vuelta because Heras was busted for EPO he said he didn't really want to be considered the winner... ever heard that one before - cheated out of a huge win and doesn't care? hmm...

5. Simoni, G  12.00 - banned for doping - but ironically it was for cocaine!  the only dope Gibo likes is the kind that gets you high not helps you ride high into the mountains...

6. Leipheimer, L  12.00 - of course he's clean as a whistle. of course when he happens to  be vacationing at the same hotel as Michelle Ferrari only months after his Gerolsteiner team forced him to cut ties with the controversial Dr it was just a fluke.  Little Levi is the almost-all-american dream!!!

7. Soler, M  12.00 - climbing sensation from last year's Tour!  no dirt. hopefully doesn't turn into a Rubino. that would suck if he did.

8. Ricco, Riccardo  13.00 - man this kid is exciting. he lit it up in Milan San Remo last year.  he followed up by ripping it through the Giro. he pissed Gibo off a bit, but he certainly didn't care. he hasn't been nearly as aggressive this season so far, so he could be like a rocket ready to launch... who knows... hopefully Piepoli brings his inhaler this year to the Giro as the way they switch speeds should work over most of the climbers at this year's Giro.

9. Nibali, V  17.00 - this guy i don't know anything about except that his nickname is The Shark!  that's sweet.

10. Pellizotti, F  22.00 - Pellizotti has the best hair in the peloton. it's true at Pozzato gets more press for his hair and wins more races, but Pellizotti will have a great race this year I think. he has a very good team behind him and they don't have to work the race the way they did last year... even though the Astana teal-train will  smoke everyone uphill Franco should be up there with the best of the rest.

11. Piepoli, L  28.00 - oops he got caught with more asthma dope in his system last year at the Giro then Pettachi did. but Piepoli's riding and Pettachi is sitting on his ass at home.  hmm... can't TT, but with Ricco should be among the few to stick to the Kazakstan Railway and might be able to show himself near the front.  he should pray for rain since he seems to ride better in bad weather.

12. Savoldelli, P  35.00 - man this guy just keeps coming back for more punishment.  Couldn't get off Astana quick enough when he found out that Johan was taking over. should be a huge asset to DeLuca when DeLuca is chasing back onto the front group after getting dropped in the mountains.  still won't help DeLuca get better then 5th.

13. Rujano Guillen, J  35.00 - if this guy doesn't take dope this year he's going to suck again.  about as big a waste of a pay check as any team manager could think of.  good lucking making it past stage 10...

14. Karpets, V  40.00 - kind of underrated, but has an AWESOME MULLET.  I would pick him to finish top 5 if he didn't weigh like 190 pounds.  that boy is big and he's gonna need to team up with his pal Menchov to limit his loses in the steep mountains.

15. Sella, E  40.00 - ok so he won stage in 2004. Whatever. i could pick 20 people who will finish higher then he will...

16. Larsson, G E  40.00 - he's a TT specialist in a race with 4 TTs. that's good.  but there's also 4 mountain top finishes... ooops. he's gonna get killed.  don't bet on him.

17. Garate, J M  50.00 - come on. this guy may be riding on a Specialized, and he was 7th last year.  i guess he might not suck. but he sure ain't gonna win this race.  I would put good money on him finishing top 10 - but he's a grinder and is going to have to do a lot of work on his own.  Quick Step sure ain't build for stage racing.

18. Bruseghin, M  50.00 - i bet he's a bit excited that Cunego isn't racing the Giro so he'll have a chance to make an attempt to lead the team.  of course it won't matter at this year's Giro because he's a TT specialist - but an Italian TT specialist which is kind of an oxymoron - like saying he's a good Spanish cyclo-crosser. 

19. Zabriskie, D  50.00 - seriously. that's the only guy on Slipstream that Unibet is even laying odds on? I don't know how serious JV wants to take the Giro for his top guys because he's got the Tour coming up, but before Astana got invited I would have picked VandeVelde for top 10 and still might.  They have a VERY good team for stage racing and if JV can just keep track of how many seconds separate his boys from the ones who want the jerseys they could come away with a few days in a few new flocks! 

The year that will be

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/news_rock_racing_to_hire_basso_article_196163.html?aff=rss

I mean seriously, this season is going to be AWESOME!

Here are some predictions:

1) Paris-Nice with no major stars except David Millar since he can't go to the Olympics anyway
2) RCS invites Cipo and Rock Racing to Milan-San Remo even though they aren't Pro Continental and Cipo and the boys rock the neon green all the way to the finish.  At the end Cipo punches Creed since he'll spend the whole day attacking the break without success.
3) Paris - Roubaix will be Paris-Nice part deux as UCI again threatens bans for everyone who starts and Tom Boonen punches Pat McQuaid in the face
4) All three grand tours will start without last years winner - but it'll only happen at the Vuelta because no one can remember who won last year.
5) Levi will win every domestic UCI race on the calendar because he has no reason to go to Europe now at all - i mean seriously who's gonna care if he wins the Tour de Swiss... this way he can spend more time working on his "save the chiwawas" charity with Odessa.
6) VDB is gonna not only win against the UCI at CAS, but he'll also kick some serious ass in the insignificant races he actually decides to enter. I mean who is he kidding when he's demanding to be allowed to race Tour of Flanders, etc... everyone know he can't / won't finish them...
7) God Bless Ivan Basso - that's all i can say!  when he gets back from working with widows and orphans in India he's gonna kick some serious ass... oh and his all black bike and kit looks sweet!  he'll fit right in with his new team.

Tour de France 2008 preview

I wrote a short overview of the new route on the Riders Club home page - you can check it out HERE - but I also have some thoughts on the stages as they go.  i'll put up another piece on how to go watch the Tour yourself in a week or so but for now here's my preview:

Mini Stage by Stage analysis

Stage 1, 2, 3 – These are flat, fast sprint stages.   GC contenders will need to be careful not to get caught out if (when) the wind picks up.  Bad weather could force some interesting racing but overall expect each of these stages to come down to sprint finishes with fast finishers like Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd, Robbie McEwen, Oscar Freire, Pettachi (if he races) and newcomers like Mark Cavendish, Robert Forster and Benatti.

Stage 4 – 29km TT – this is going to be a very fast TT, but shouldn’t seen huge separation among the major favorites.  Look for guys like Cunego and Contador to lose a bit of time and possibly Cadel Evans or Fabian Cancellara to take the yellow jersey, but don’t expect anything real to be decided here.

Stage 5 – another sprint – probably boring – look for a big breakaway to be caught with 3km to go.

Stage 6 & 7 – These will be hard stages, and fast.  Both are less then 200km but will be the first chance for the rolleurs – or one day specialists to try and grab a stage.  Look for big breakaways and then for teams like Quickstep and FdJ to treat is like a one-day race from the front.  This is a great stage for an opportunist like Philippe Gilbert or for a French rider like Silvain Chavalen or David Moncoutee to grab a stage win.  Also look for a long breakaway by a Slipstream rider here if they get into the Tour.

Stage 8 – boring, flat, fast, sprint or a break-a-way of guys everyone knows can’t climb

Stage 9 & 10 – there are only two mountain stages in the Pyrenees this year, and only 4 climbs total in the Pyrenees.  Of course those four are among the most historic of Pyreneian climbs – the Peyresourde, the Aspin, the Tourmalet and Hautacam. There will be major fireworks on Hautacam, but unless the weather is diabolical expect the major GC contenders to emerge from the Pyrenees still bunched up within 1.5 to 2 minutes of each other.  Some major players will drop off, but overall the Tour won’t be won in the Pyrenees and it will be tough for anyone to stamp their complete authority on the race through here.

Stage 11 – 14 – leaving the mountains there is a moderate stage (read breakaway) and three sprint stages.  None are over 182km and so will be fast and controlled.  For teams without GC contenders, but with sprinters this will be their chance to shine – look for Quickstep, FdJ, Credit Agricole, and Milram to be up front controlling these days.  The GC contenders will need to pay attention so no one dangerous pulls back 30 minutes, but overall they should be able to roll in the peloton and will have help controlling the race.

Stage 15-16-17 – Boom, boom, boom.  Here’s where the Tour will be won.  There are two possible outcomes: 1) a climber blows the peloton out of the water and takes stage after stage opening up a big enough gab after Alp d’Huez to hang on or 2) a TT specialist shows himself to be good enough to stick with the climbers and comes out within striking distance.  Either way there will be one guy after stage 17 standing tall and I predict it will be one of the top 3 on Alp d’Huez who wins the race. 

Even without a climb heavy Tour, stage 17 is tough enough that it will make or break the race.  If someone falters on the Alp there will be no coming back and if they can stick close to the front of the stage they can take the race. 

Stage 18 – everyone will be tired – there will be a breakaway of a bunch of nobodies and the peloton will roll in 15 minutes later.  Go outside and ride instead of watching this stage

Stage 19 – see above.

Stage 20 – 53km TT. The ASO would love for the race to come down to this stage.   Their dream is like this year – three guys all within a minute – all have to pull out the race of their lives to win – drama,  drama, drama.  It could happen, but probably not.  Whoever is in yellow in the morning will have to ride hard – for sure – but as mentioned above – either a guy like Cadel is within 30 seconds and should take it back or a guy like Cunego or Contador is over a minute up and should keep it…  still better set the Tivo for this one – you’ll want to watch it again.

Stage 21 – enjoy the champagne, die your beard yellow and cruise into Paris like you’re on a Sunday group ride!  If you can get over to Paris to watch the 10 laps of the Champs do it!  If you can get into any of the after parties try your hardest to get an invite. And if not – make sure you watch the finish and then go for a ride. Nothing seals another Tour de France like an afternoon on a bicycle. 

Who’s going to win?  Who knows who’s even going to start, but the favorites at this point have to be the same as the top 5 from last year – Evans, Contador, Leipheimer, Zubeldia, Sastre and possibly Valverde even though he’s said he’s training for the Olympics. Throw in Klodi if he even has a team, Popovych, Michael Rogers, Denis Menchov and Cunego if he decides to come back and it’s an exciting group of young stars vs. a few veterans. 

Urban NYC riding - fun times & fast bikes

We had a day to kill in NYC and what could be better then a rollin' adventure down to Battery Park and the base of Manhattan…

With a pair of New Yorkers as our guides we rolled out of Toga’s West side store and headed South.  With a bike path heading down the Hudson River we easily rolled down to the tip of Manhattan – Battery Park – a few shots and a quick count of the flying helicopters overhead (6 all in view at one point) we decided bike paths were for wimps and heading back uptown the real way – across the Bowery to SoHo, up 4^th Ave to Midtown and through central park.There’s nothing that gets the watts flowing like trying to close a gap on a NYC cab as you roll through a yellow light! 

We rolled well (and Peter even rode the tri-bike) and hit a few illegal sections just for kicks.  As we hit Central Park we couldn’t resist doing a lap of the park and enjoyed a cool down from our day of urban riding!

i love top 10 lists... here's mine.

Rides every cyclist should do…

a few weeks ago I spent 5 days in Iowa at RAGBRAI – I had to leave before the ride finished, but the days I rode (including a full century on Monday) opened my eyes to what’s possible for us as cyclists.  I loved all the different riders we passed (and who passed us) during the week – we saw everything from triple tandems to double recumbents to 100 year old steel bikes.  The best part of RAGBRAI is that there are cyclists of all levels – but everyone shares their love for cycling.

Runners have the Boston Marathon, tri-geeks have the Hawaii Ironman, riding at RAGBRAI got me thinking about classic rides – events and routes every cyclist should do – or at least try…  so I started a list and have whittled it down to the 10 best rides I’ve done (or want to do) and that I think every rider should do.  In no particular order except as they came out of my head here they are:

1.       RAGBRAI – 7 days of riding across Iowa with 15,000 other cyclists.  Seriously, what could be better than this – oh you say they have a beer garden at every town and live bands every night.  Yup that’s even better!

2.       Alp d’Huez – ok so its best when the Tour is there, but even without the Tour it’s a spectacular ride – the 21 switchbacks are where heroes are made and races lost.  Lance vs. Jan in 2001 is still one of the top 10 days in cycling EVER and this was the showcase for everything each of them had. This isn’t the Tour’s hardest climb, or the longest, or the oldest one continuously used… but it just might have the most soul. This climb is what makes everything about the Tour great; great scenery, a million fans, switchbacks, leg crushing steep sections and enough writing on the road to remember the exploits of past heroes (and villains) of the world’s greatest bicycle race.

3.       Ronde van Vlaanderen Cyclosportif – ride the Tour of Flanders with 10,000 rabid Belgian cycling fans?  It’s been said that the average Belgian knows more about cycling in their little finger then most Americans. Oh yea and they have the worlds hardest one-day races right out their front door.  This is a ride everyone should do once.  Trying to negotiate the Koppenburg with 1000 other cyclists is worth the entry by itself.

4.       Ironhorse Classic – you race a train from Durango to Silverton Colorado.  What could be better than that?  Oh yea the ride is almost all uphill and crosses two passes.  Sweet.

5.       Maratona dles Dolomiti – there are probably 100 big Gran Fondos (cyclesportif races) in Italy every year and many are sponsored by classic bike companies – the Grand Fondo Pinarello, etc…, and they all over hard routes, most have lots of climbing and multiple route options. Any of them could be called a classic, but the one everyone should do is the Maratona.  You don’t even need the rest of the title – every Italian cyclist knows the Maratona, and they all want to do it.  Climb 4190 meters in 138km and you know will know why it’s a classic.

6.       Bike Tour Colorado – I know that Ride the Rockies is more popular and gets more people to enroll, but it just seems like BTC is a harder ride and you get more for your money. Yea – it’s not as fancy, but 12,000 foot pass is a 12,000 foot pass no matter which group is organizing you ride.  I know riding with 2000 other people might not be everyone’s cup to tea, but to ride the Colorado Rockies is something every cyclist should do and the experience of crossing something like Independence Pass is equal to any European climb.

7.       A bike tour in Provence – ok so most “serious” cyclists look down on organized bike tours.  They are expensive, you don’t always cover huge miles, you have to follow an itinerary, blah, blah, blah.  Some of that may be true, but the pure enjoyment of point to point rides without any worry of luggage, shuttles, where to stop for lunch, how to find a hotel, how to get more water makes trying an organized tour just once worth it.  You might not get to this point for years, but one day; every cyclist will think – “How great would it be to not worry about anything except riding!”  And that’s when you’re gonna be hooked.  Provence represents the absolute best in bike touring – hard climbs if you want, long rides if you’re so inclined, and 2000 years of history.  Climb Ventoux, have a sip of Bandol Rose with lunch, ride the Gorge de la Nesque, take a picture of the Pont du Gare, and ride into the old city of St. Remy…

8.       The Horribly Hilly Hundred, or the Hotter the Hell Hundred, or the 6 Gap Century, or the Assault on Mt. Mitchell… There are probably 1000 centuries++ planned every year in the United States.  It’s hard to pick one as a true “classic”, but there are awesome centuries in every state that every cyclist should go out and find.  If you can do one of the four I’ve mentioned you’ve earned your distance riding credentials.  If you can do more than one a year, then you’ve becoming an endurance cyclist.  Enjoy the experience, get in a pace-line, ride faster than you ever thought possible.  If you did a 5:30 century last year, do a 5:15 this year. When you get to 4:30 then start looking for rides with races at the front end. Hit El Tour de Tucson and see how you stack up against current and former pros.  Whatever the reason – every cyclist should do a century. Maybe not every year, maybe only once, but like the marathon to runners, it’s an easy to achieve goal, but one that takes some real planning and training.

9.       The Shootout – ah the group ride!  The shootout happens to be in Tucson.  But there are group rides that rip it up every Saturday or Sunday in almost every town.  Find the start location.  Rock up early.  Say hi to a few locals (and be prepared to get ignored) and then hang on for dear life!  There’s nothing like a new group ride to tame an ego especially one stacked with pros like the shootout. Enjoy the ride, and come back next week.

10.   Porcupine Rim – Bike Magazine called Porcupine one of the top 10 trails in America. Other magazines have called it the best "classic" trail ever.  I don’t know about that, but everyone who mountain bikes (ok actually everyone who rides a bike) should go to Moab once and ride the classics, Porcupine, Slickrock, Poison Spider, some high La Sal Mountain loops, the list keeps growing as new “classics” get built or re-discovered.  If Porcupine Rim is the icing then Moab is the cake.  And damn, everyone loves cake don’t they.  Don’t let the stories of broken bones, and 5 foot drops scare you.  Moab is something every mountain biker should experience.  If it’s no longer the “best” riding in America it’s still a classic. And that’s why it’s on my list.

The week that was...

well the first week went pretty well at the Tour.  i'm doing pretty well in my two tour pools - sitting in the top 20 of each (out of about 80 people) and lookin' good for next week.

one interesting thing i've noticed this year is that while the sprinters teams are working well to pull the breaks back (like there was any question that they wouldn't...) none of the teams have been able to put together a leadout train to last more then 1000m of the last 3k.  Plus it seems like a hard effort is taking a lot more out of the dominating teams then ever before... any idea why that's happening???

The way Cancellara has held onto his jersey really marks him as a star for the future - his win on Stage 3 has to go down as the best win so far.  Boonen looked good in his 1.5 wins but damn, to jump the peloton with Zabel, et al on the front and drive it home like that is something special!  Riis has to be happy (watching from his couch at home) that he's free of scandel - for now at least.

The beauty of a jump like that is that it puts the rest of the race on notice. This is a tour a bit unlike the last either.  Even in 1998 when Pantani spoiled the start of the "so-called dynasty" the first week was under control.

With the race heading into the mountains today it unfolded just like expected.  None of the big teams were willing to put in the effort needed to shred the peloton.  Yea there were about 30-40 guys who finished together and the rest got dropped, but look at the composition. No major stars dropped.  All the big teams with at least three riders and no one looking too much worse for the day that was.

Tomorrow should provide the first major fireworks of the Tour and if all acounts of form are correct we should see the green missle blasting his way up the hill at a break neck speed and the rest gasping for his wheel.

  Here's my prediction. You are going to see a hell of a lot more of THIS <-- over the next few days and it ain't gonna be pretty for guys like Sastre, Evans or Vino.

Giddy-up baby the Tour's about to start for real!

Tour de Farce 2007

This is the first time in 10 years that I won’t be in France for the Tour… the first time I went to France in 1997 I went to Paris to watch the final stage – since then I’ve seen the many angles of the Tour – from Lance’s attack on Alp d’Huez in 2001 to the 100th anniversary prologue in Paris in 2003 to Richard Virenque heading to victory on a smoking hot Ventoux in 2002. For the past five years I’ve followed almost every stage either on French TV or live – to sit and watch the Tour of Versus this year will be a big difference for me – I’ve never (ever) been in the US when the Tour was on daily TV.

Yet this year is shaping up to be one of the most open tours in years (of course that’s been said before) and more to the point one of the least watched. While I work in the cycling industry and have a bit of biased view – I can’t remember a tour with less interest then this one in the past 10 years. Of course on-going doping and the Floyd Landis case sour the public on cycling, but even more then that there just aren’t any great stories to tell. It’s the same riders as it was in the past, but without the great back story of Lance, or Jan Ullrich or even Ivan Basso working his way up the ranks as a leader. Now there are some of the future stars of cycling getting ready to start this tour – young guys like Thomas Decker, Alberto Contador and Stefan Schumacher.

But I think it’s more then that this year – I think the Europeans (especially the Germans) are losing interest because they feel that cycling can’t keep it’s house in order and the Americans are losing interest because the only real American challenger (Levi Leipheimer) is not exactly setting the world on fire – either with his riding style or his public persona. Here is a guy who’s won many major races (Tour of California, Tour of Germany, Dauphine Libere…) and still the American public have no idea who he is. In fact I would go so far as to say the cycling-fans have no idea who he really is. Reading an interview with Levi is about as interesting as cleaning a chain and replacing a derailleur cable. I mean seriously the guy sounds like he’s just coming up from AAA baseball and is hoping not to piss off any of the stars “we are just here to ride as a team”, “the important thing is that the team wins”, “I’m ready to do my job…” blah blah blah… LEVI – DO YOU KNOW HOW BORING YOU SOUND???? Seriously – I’d rather interview his wife then talk to him if I were doing a story on the Tour. At least she would know where the podium girls are going to be partying on the night before the rest day!

So back to the Tour; The New York Times (about as cross over a media outlet as possible in the united states) has a story about the tour in it’s June issue of PLAY magazine. Here’s who they pick and what I think:

Alexander Vinokourov – everyone’s favorite. Last year he was “robbed” of his start because 5 of his teammates were kicked out for being involved in doping. But he came back and won the Vuelta – oh and he’s clean… right, his whole former team is implicated, his former director sportif is implicated, his on-the-side trainer is Michelle Ferrari the Riis-EPO doctor from the 90s and he’s clean…

• Odds on starting the tour: 50%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 2:5

Andreas Klöden – yea he’s a German and ex-best friend of Jan Ullrich. Oh and he should have won the tour last year, but fucked up with the rest of the peloton when they gave away 30 minutes and then let Floyd make fools of them (in an attack I predicted the night before I might add). So – he doesn’t have much tactical sense, but he’s very strong in the time trials and top 10 level in the mountains. If his team starts he’ll be top 10 for sure, and if Vino gets kicked out of the tour – he could win it…

• Odds on starting the tour: 60% (the only reason he wont is if Astana is kicked out)
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:4 or 1:3 without Vino in the race

Alejandro Valverde – or should I say Valv.Piti. I mean seriously there is a bag of blood in Dr. Fuentes’ office with “Valv.Piti” on it and Piti is the name of Alejandro’s dog? Come on – how hard will it be to check the DNA… is the whole sport run by idiots? Give the DNA, do the check, let him race or ban him for cheating. Case closed. The idiots who run this sport deserve to have all their sponsors drop off like flies. If he starts the tour without any real investigation into this the whole sport is a joke and he deserves to win and then get busted 2 months from now so we have another Tour without a winner.

• Odds on starting the tour: 40%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:2

Oscar Pereiro – hmm… see above. When “Urko” said he’d rather quit cycling then give DNA I think we all knew what that means. If he races I can’t believe anyone would actually put him on their potential winners list. Seriously. Yea he was top 10 in 2005 as an opportunist, but come on, he lost 25 minutes last year on the first mountain stage and then only stayed close in the Alps because everyone else was watching Floyd. He’s a joke on anyone’s top 10 list. Take a look on the left - this is last time anyone will ever see him in a yellow jersey.

• Odds on starting the tour: 40%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 0%

Carlos Sastre – ok so he’s actually the first guy mentioned here without a real doping scandal surrounding him. Oh wait, he’s on CSC a team that Jorg Jaksche just said allowed systematic doping to take place while he was on it (albeit in 2004). Oh yea and the team is run by the only Tour winner to ever admit he used EPO to win the race. Oh and Christian Prudhomme the race director doesn’t want the team at the race because he’s pissed off about Riis’ cheat-to-win admission. Hmm… if the 4 guys above get kicked out and Levi gets a flat during the TT and all the Russians get drunk one night he might win it… but he’ll lose 4 to 5 minutes in the two TTs so overcoming that might take some major drug use.

• Odds on starting the tour: 60%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:5

Dennis Menchov – actually could have a chance. He was originally named in Operation Puerto, but it doesn’t seem like his name has come up again – so maybe he’s off the hook. He won the Vuelta in 2005 (after the winner got busted for EPO) but hasn’t ever had a really GREAT Tour. Yea, he won the white jersey on year as best young rider, and yea he did win one of the hardest stages of the race last year, but he hasn’t ever shown the major consistency needed to win a 3-week stage right outright. Without any new allegations against him he’s definitely a top 5 contender… to win? Only if more names come out this week. He’s better against the clock then Sastre, but has never put 5 good climbing days together.

• Odds on starting the tour: 90%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:6

Christophe Moreau – ok, so he was part of Festina in 1998 and served a 6 month suspension but he’s probably the cleanest of the favorites. He has a clean reputation and is hard worker. He just dominated the Dauphine in June and could be a huge threat if his team has control the race in the first week to keep him in the top ten by the time the climb to Tignes. If that happens and he doesn’t lose more then 2 minutes he could be on his way to his best finish ever. Hopefully he can TT better then he did at the Dauphine, but he has ridden well against the clock in years past and has it in him.

• Odds on starting the tour: 95%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:4

Levi Leipheimer – see (way) above. Boring. But he’s been on form all year and except for some slight sickness at the Dauphine, he should be ready. He has a very strong team with some hold over from the Blue-Train years. George might be a bit old to repeat his climbing performance of 2004 when he dropped half the peloton on the way up to la Monjie, but if Contador doesn’t get kicked out and with Popo riding well there shouldn’t be a repeat of last year’s Discovery fiasco. He is TT-ing really well this year and climbing strong. Should improve on his 6th place of ’05 if he keeps his head on (and Discovery is allowed to start).

• Odds on starting the tour: 80%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:3

Dave Zabriskie – ha what a joke. He shouldn’t even be in the race, except that with his performances this year I’m pretty sure that he’s not on drugs. Oh he might be top 5 at the Prologue and the first ITT, but why bring him when he isn’t even the best time trialist on his team and he’ll certainly fall apart in the 3rd week. oh, he did ride well on Ventoux at the Dauphine, but he’ll get shelled in the Alps this year and crushed in the Pyrenees. Hopefully his team can start. He might finish top 30.

• Odds on starting the tour: 60%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:100

There are a few stars the NYTimes forgot (mainly because none of them are Americans or they are Euros who’s names no one can pronounce) but here’s some other top 10 potentials:

Cadel Evans – now here’s a guy with no doping scandals at all. He has had two very good tour finishes (8th in ’05 and 5th last year). I don’t think I ever saw him attack the leaders and his only appearance in a breakaway in two years was in ’05 after he was way out of the race for top 3. He’s a good climber and a decent TTer, but he’d have to have some major breaks work his way to be considered a real top 3 threat. Oh yea, and he has been basically invisible this year so far except for finally showing up as the 2nd most consistent climber at the Dauphine. I say he’s a lock for top 5, but to win… he’ll need some big breaks to content for top 3.

• Odds on starting the tour: 95%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:5

Michael Rogers – Probably clean. Top 10 last year. Ex-TT world champion. Faltered a bit this year at the Tour de Swiss, but sounds like he’s ready. Should be a strong contender for top 10 or even top 5 with a few Operation Puerto related exclusions. He has very little change of wining since he’s never once attacked in a mountain stage, and can’t match the final accelerations in a hard stage.

• Odds on starting the tour: 95%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:10

Vladimir Karpets – will lead Caisse d’Epargne if Valv.Piti and Urko get kicked out. If not he’ll be a climbing domestic for the race and should be able to still pull out at top 10 or 15 finish. He’s a strong climber for a big guy and mean against the clock.

• Odds on starting the tour: 90%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:10

Haimar Zubeldia – actually riding ok this year. Might be able to reprise his top 10 finish from a few years ago. Has an ok team, but they won’t be able to control the race at all. His best bet will be to pick a favorite and sit behind him and try to hang on. Not much of a chance of finishing higher then 5th or 6th.

• Odds on starting the tour: 90%
• Odds on winning if he starts: 1:15

A few other guys to watch this year will be Stefan Schumacher, Iban Mayo, perennial over-paid Sylvain Chavanel (who rode surprisingly well at the Dauphine) and Manuel Beltran for stage wins in moderate climbing stages or in the Pyrenees if they are way behind. Watch out for Frank Schleck, Markus Fothen and Contador on the transition stages – these guys are future Tour stars in the making.

If I had to pick a top 10 from everyone who is supposed to ride it would be:

1. Vino
2. Valverde
3. Levi
4. Moreau
5. Sastre
6. Evans
7. Menchov
8. Kloden
9. Rogers
10. Schleck